Solar Cycle
Solar Cycle
How greatly do you believe solar cycles affect global warming?
The solar cycle is the eleven-year cycle of the Solar Activity of the sun, first determined in 1843 by astronomer Heinrich Schwabe. Solar variations in output have been measured from satellites. Climate scientists are trying to determine how much the variations effect the temperature of Earth’s atmosphere.
What do you think, and please provide a link or two if you have them.
Thanks for the link, Doc! Through your link I found an article titled, “How to Fight Global Warming.”
How do you fight the sun?
http://www.livescience.com/environment/070131_GW_tips.html
Almost all scientific studies show that the Sun is responsible for 5-10% of the current warming.
A recent study by Lockwood showed that essentially all solar factors which effect the climate have been going in the wrong direction to have caused the planet to warm over the past 30 years.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6290228.stm
http://www.pubs.royalsoc.ac.uk/media/proceedings_a/rspa20071880.pdf
Basically the ways the Sun has been proposed to effect our climate through total Solar Irradiance (TSI), sunspots, and indirectly through galactic cosmic rays (GCRs).
The TSI trend has at most been increasing 0.008% per decade since 1980, depending on which measurement you accept. This is a very small increase. If you take the absolute greatest TSI trend estimate possible (this includes using the ACRIM composite and using the 2-sigma error), it could only account for a warming of 0.062°C since 1980, when the total global warming has been 0.5°C. At the very most, TSI would account for 12.4% of the recent warming.
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2007/07/24/pmod-vs-acrim/
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=An9utGUjDUqDHOorAbGsaGnty6IX;_ylv=3?qid=20071030091957AAMwreQ
And there are some very good reasons to accept the PMOD over the ACRIM composite.
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=AkrpFY07cYlN4lwS07hKFgXty6IX;_ylv=3?qid=20071030092346AABWrzY
The PMOD composite actually shows a 0.006% decrease in TSI per decade since 1980.
http://www.acrim.com/Senior%20Review%202007/earth_obs_fig14.pdf
Sunspots show virtually no correlation to the current warming trend:
http://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun-on-earth/600px-Temp-sunspot-co2.svg.png
And Svensmark’s GCR theory has been thorougly disproven by several different studies, and has several fundamental flaws.
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=AmRC4woki.QadIUY2fk7kLPty6IX;_ylv=3?qid=20071030112550AA7AXSu
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=AvbtgI1im3pK.PoH1Qb02YkAAAAA;_ylv=3?qid=20071029182557AAwlqQv
http://www.pubs.royalsoc.ac.uk/media/proceedings_a/rspa20071880.pdf
Given all this evidence, I agree with the IPCC, which concludes that the Solar Forcing only accounts for ~5% and at the very most ~15% of the current warming (page 4 in the link below)
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_SPM.pdf
Past & Future Climate Change – Pt 2 of 4
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